Not Much Hope for Real G7 Support

With the deadline approaching on extending sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea, the former captive nations and the free world had hoped that the G7 leaders would resoundingly and unanimously endorse their extension because of Moscow’s obstinate belligerence against its neighbor.

President Poroshenko had personally provided the G7 leaders with evidence of a surge in Russia’s war in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and urged them to extend their sanctions against Russia following its repeated violations of the Minsk agreement. At a meeting with G7 ambassadors, Poroshenko showed that Russia increased the number of attacks against Ukrainian army positions.

“The G7 ambassadors were provided with comprehensive evidence of violations by Russia, the presence of Russian troops in the occupied areas of Donbas and continued dispatch of fighters and ammunition from Russia to the occupied territories,” his press service reported.

Leading up to the G7 Summit and during the deliberations, Polish and other x-captive nations’ leaders echoed Poroshenko’s appeals and expressed their expectations that the sanctions will certainly be prolonged because, after all, Russia has not lived up to its obligations: it had not withdrawn its armies and weapons from Ukraine, and it had not returned Crimea to Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Even German Chancellor Angela Merkel assumed a hard line against Russia, declaring the sanctions will definitely be extended and, furthermore, Russia will not be re-invited to join the super club of independent states until it changes its behavior.

“For me it’s too early to give the all clear,” Merkel told reporters in response to questions, adding that an earlier pro-sanction policy would remain in place. “There is no change of position to be expected from the G7,” she added.

The UK’s David Cameron opined “The G7 has agreed on the vital importance of sanctions rollover in June. Ukraine is the victim of Russian-backed aggression. We must never forget that fact.”

Ultimately, news media trumpeted that the G7 has indeed extended sanctions against criminal Russia. It was an understandable decision against an outlaw state and government.

Then, suddenly, even before the ink had dried on the summit’s final document, some of the members began to change their position. Prevarication set it. They were willing to provide Russia with wiggle room, an opportunity to delay or avoid reforming altogether.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier first publically advocated lifting economic sanctions on Russia, under certain conditions. Western countries needed to keep up the pressure on Moscow by enforcing what he called “intelligent” bans.

“Sanctions are not an end in themselves: that has always been my attitude,” Steinmeier told German weekly Der Spiegel in an interview after the summit concluded, adding that if Russia contributes to peace in eastern Ukraine, it should also see a positive effect. “If there is progress in implementing the Minsk agreement, we can also speak about relaxing the sanctions.”

His spokesman Martin Schäfer said it was “correct and important to keep up the pressure on Moscow but also to use the instrument of sanctions against Russia in an intelligent manner.”

Why clarify an already weak, perfunctory conclusion of the G7 leaders to extend sanctions with a wink?

The Kremlin, expectedly, warned against extending the sanctions, saying they will not have a positive impact on the global economy and on global affairs. “The Kremlin's position has not changed: we still believe that this is not an issue on our agenda,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Actually, the G7’s position on Ukraine and Russia is akin to a toothless paper tiger. Its views on Ukraine appeared on page 22 of a 32-page final document. This is what it said:

“We stand united in our conviction that the conflict in Ukraine can only be solved by diplomatic means and in full respect for international law, especially the legal obligation to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.

“We reiterate our condemnation of the illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia and reaffirm our policy of its non-recognition and sanctions against those involved.

“We are concerned by continued violence along the line of contact in violation of the ceasefire; we urge all sides to take concrete steps that will lead to the complete ceasefire required under the Minsk agreements.

“We also urge all sides to fulfill their commitments without delay with a view to holding local elections in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as soon as possible in accordance with the Minsk agreements.

“We emphasize our strongest support for full implementation of the Minsk agreements and the work of the Normandy format and the Trilateral Contact Group.

“We expect Russia to live up to its commitments and use its influence over the separatists to meet their commitments in full.

“We stress the OSCE's key role in helping to deescalate the crisis, and we call upon all sides, particularly the separatists, to provide the organization’s monitors full and unfettered access throughout the conflict zone.

“We recall that the duration of sanctions is clearly linked to Russia’s complete implementation of the Minsk agreements and respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Sanctions can be rolled back when Russia meets these commitments.

“However, we also stand ready to take further restrictive measures in order to increase cost on Russia should its actions so require.

“We recognize the importance of maintaining dialogue with Russia in order to ensure it abides by the commitments it has made as well as international law and to reach a comprehensive, sustainable and peaceful solution to the crisis.

“We commend and support the steps Ukraine is taking to implement comprehensive structural, governance and economic reforms and encourage Ukraine to continue and accelerate the process.

We urge Ukraine to maintain and enhance the momentum in its fight against corruption and its judicial reform, including the Prosecutor General’s office.

“We are fully committed to providing long-term support to this end.

“We also commend the work of the Ukraine support group of G7 Ambassadors in Kyiv.

“We reaffirm our commitment to undertake joint efforts with Ukraine to convert the Chornobyl site into a stable and environmentally safe condition, 30 years after the catastrophe.”

This final statement shows that major world leaders persist in calling the Russo-Ukraine War of 2014-16 a conflict, which means that its solution could be negotiated as if between squabbling partners. They placed the onus of a solution of both the aggressor and victim. They insisted on maintaining a dialogue with Russia. They accentuated their commitment to rolling back sanctions against Russia if it meets its global commitments and obligations without any visible indication that Moscow is leaning in that direction.

The free world should not follow Russia’s script on how to deal with its criminality. Weighing Russian global or domestic crimes should not be undertaken through the prism of Russia’s nuclear weapons.

Russia refuses to recognize its commitments and withdraw from Ukraine. The longer Russian armies and terrorists remain in Ukraine, the greater the threat against the other former captive nations and the greater likelihood that murderous acts of Russian-inspired terrorism will spread across and beyond Ukraine.

While providing Ukraine with lethal weapons remains an impossible dream, the G7 could escalate the requirements for rolling back sanctions by instituting a firm deadline, increasing military and political pressure against Russia not merely focusing attention on economic ones, and begin referring to Russia as the Russian Nazi Republic.

Nothing else has worked so perhaps public shame will have an impact on the Kremlin.

Only Recourse for Russia: Sanctions & Isolation

Russia continues to intensify its undeclared war against Ukraine and trample its ceasefire commitments under the Minks Treaty without any sizable global condemnation. In everyday terms, Moscow is being treated as if it is committing misdemeanors rather than capital crimes. Despite spikes and lulls in the fighting, Russia continues to wage war against Ukraine and push its invasion, which military leaders fear will lead to an assault against other former captive nations.

Putin and his Kremlin junta, regardless of their excuses, are perpetrating war crimes against a neighboring state, crimes against their own people and civil society, and lies in athletics. Hardly the profile of a welcome global partner.

Several days ago, on the eve of the G7 Summit in Japan, Russian troops and mercenaries, in spite of their leader’s commitment to adhering to the Minsk Accords signed in February 2015, launched a widespread firefight against Ukrainian positions, in which seven Ukrainian soldiers were killed and nine others were wounded.

In a 24-hour period, Russian mercenaries attacked Ukrainian positions 31 times, reported Ukraine’s military press center. Officials said on Tuesday, May 24, that the killings were a result of a spike in attacks by pro-Russian rebels. Ukrainian commanders said the daily causalities were the highest since last August.

IHS Jane’s Country Risk Daily Report, among other sources, quoted Ukrainian military officials as saying that its positions in Donetsk and Luhansk regions had been shelled by Russian militants 30 times in the previous 24 hours.

The most intense fighting, as in previous weeks, was north of Donetsk, in the vicinity of Avdiyivka, an industrial center of 35,000 residents, which is located just 6 km north of Donetsk. According to the Ukrainian army, mercenaries regularly use machine guns, rocket-propelled grenade-launchers, and 82-mm and 120-mm mortars. While fighting is not limited to this area and also occurs west of Horlivka and east of Mariupol (both in the Donetsk region) and near Shchastya and Stanytsia Luhanska (in the Luhansk region), Avdiyivka has emerged as ground zero in recent weeks.

Oleksander Turchynov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, was quoted as saying that mercenaries backed by Russia had intensified attacks on Ukrainian troops using heavy weapons that were to have been withdrawn from the frontline under the Minsk treaty.

“I want to draw the attention of our strategic partners to the blatant and cynical discrediting by Russia of all the joint peace efforts,” Turchynov said in a statement.

According to the presidential administration spokesman for the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) Oleksandr Motuzianyk, the casualties were reported in the town of Avdiyivka that suffered heavy shelling. The outskirts of Avdiyivka remain the hottest points of fighting along the front.

“After shelling our positions, the militants turned their weapons and fired in the direction of Donetsk,” the military press center said, adding the provocation was conducted to blame Ukraine’s army.

The invaders used heavy-caliber machine guns, grenade launchers and 82mm-calibre mortars. They used the same types of weapons to shell Ukrainian army positions near the town of Krasnohorivka. The terrorists also attacked Ukrainian positions near the villages of Shchastya and Sokolnyky using small arms and grenade launchers.

Some of more than 70 shells fired overnight to the positions of Ukrainian military, hit residential areas of the town and set some houses on fire. One local woman suffered shrapnel wounds.

Ukrainian military also reported spotting five Russian drones, two of them coming from the Russian territory.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has also been tabulating Russian violations of the Minsk Accords and attacks against Ukrainian troops:

In DPR (acronym for the renegade Donetsk Peoples Republic)-controlled Yasynuvata (16 km northeast of Donetsk), between 08:57 and 13:10 on May 23, the Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) reported hearing 19 undetermined explosions and four single shots of small-arms fire 0.5-3 km west-southwest and northeast of its position. Between 13:21 and 16:22, the SMM heard 18 undetermined explosions, five bursts and 12 single shots of heavy machine gun and small-arms fire 2-5km west and west-north-west of its position. Positioned 2km south of government-controlled Avdiyivka (17km north of Donetsk), the SMM between 13:04 and 13:24 heard 11 explosions assessed as impacts of 82mm mortar 4km east of its position. Between 16:05 and 16:58, the SMM heard four explosions assessed as impacts of recoilless gun (SPG-9, 73mm), 11 undetermined explosions, seven explosions assessed as impacts of 82mm mortar, 22 bursts of heavy machine gun fire and three shots and six bursts of small-arms fire. Between 17:14 and 17:15, the SMM heard one explosion assessed as an outgoing 120mm mortar round and five bursts of heavy machine gun fire 3km southeast of its position.

As it maintains its bloody deceit, Russia is denying that it is providing its terrorists in Luhansk and Donetsk with arms and regular soldiers to escalate its war that has claimed some 10,000 lives. It denies in the face of proof to the contrary its involvement in the war against Ukraine. Moscow is also forcing its demand for local elections in the war zone, which is being treated seriously by France and Germany. Elections in eastern Ukraine should not take place until Russia withdraws from Ukraine and its surrogates are arrested and tried.

According to credible officials, such as Deputy Chief Monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, Alexander Hug, evidence collected by the organization indicates that Russian troops have been directly involved in the war in Ukraine since it first erupted in the spring of 2014.

Speaking at a press conference in Odessa, Hug said: “From the beginning, we wrote in our reports about different types of weapons. It includes, among other things, electronic equipment, which interfered with the work of our drones. We wrote in our reports that observers recorded the presence of armed men with visible insignias of Russian troops on their uniforms. We also talked to prisoners who said that they were the soldiers of the Russian army. Also, we saw traces – not the vehicles themselves, but the traces of their movement across the border (from Russia to Ukraine).”

At the G7 Summit, President Obama, perhaps frustrated by the duration of Russian war in Ukraine, made a strange remark about it. He openly complained to reporters that there was too much violence in Ukraine and urged his colleagues to resolve the situation in Ukraine.

Obama said: “We started to see some progress in negotiations, but we’re still seeing too much violence, and we need to get that resolved.”

It is difficult to respond to the American commander in chief who makes such a frivolous observation. Wars, undeclared wars, proxy wars, hybrid wars and other kinds of wars are wrought with violence, death and destruction in this case brought upon Ukraine by Russia. War is hell, Mr. President. The G7 cannot resolve the situation in Ukraine without Obama’s direction that the resolution must begin with Putin and his armies and mercenaries.

As these past seven days have shown, Russia still refuses to abide by entreaties and demands that it cease its war with Ukraine. The war continues to claim Ukrainian lives as world leaders exhibit greater signs of boredom and weariness, while turning their attention more and more to Kyiv’s domestic plague of corruption.

Moscow commits crimes on many levels with impunity, disparaging sanctions, treaty commitments and international law. In previous generations world leaders successfully turned to morality in determining their relations with countries near and far. They formed coalitions to defeat or at least subdue international lawbreakers. There is no justifiable, long-term reason to cower behind fear of Russian nuclear arsenal or its energy reserves.

The world is confronted with Shakespearean to be or not to be.

If the free world’s resolve and will to defeat Russia or at least to expel Russian armies and terrorists from Ukraine dissipates, then there will be no hope for regional and global peace, security and stability. Business as usual with Russia sends the wrong message to Moscow and prolongs the trauma faced by the former captive nations.